A newly-released forecast issued by ACMG indicates that there will be significant future demand for freighter aircraft under a wide variety of assumptions regarding underlying demand for air cargo services. The fact that the freighter fleet will grow stands in stark contrast to recent experience, which saw the total quantity of freighters in the global fleet drop about 6% over the past year and drop nearly 14% from a peak level in 2006/07. Clearly the freighter market has been under considerable pressure in recent years. "Despite concerns about too much capacity in the freighter fleet today, the fact is the fleet will expand over the next 20 years, even if growth in demand for air freight service zeros out, which is highly unlikely," said Robert Dahl, Managing Director of ACMG. ACMG (Air Cargo Management Group), a market research and consulting firm, updates its forecast each year, but the report was last offered for sale as a standalone document in 2010. The ACMG forecast is the only in-depth, independent assessment of future demand for freighters. The newly released 2013 edition covers the period from 2013 - 2032, predicting demand for freighters to meet growth and replacement needs under multiple scenarios of future air cargo market growth. ACMG's forecast is unique in projecting fleet growth in five-year increments, and in showing demand for individual aircraft types, taking into account the impact of production freighter deliveries, passenger-to-freighter(PTF) conversion activity, and the retirement of aging freighters from the existing fleet. The report includes the total forecasted number of freighters in each of the forthcoming 5 year time periods. A "high growth" scenario, which assumes 5% annual growth in demand for air freight services, would result in more than a doubling of the quantity of freighters in the global fleet by 2032. This produces the need for an average of roughly 150 added freighters per year for the next twenty years. This compares to the historic trend in which approximately 80 freighters (production units and PTF conversions) were added per year from 1990-2010. A "low-growth" scenario, based on 3% annual growth in demand, would result in the need for roughly a 50% increase in the number of freighters by 2032, with an average of about 100 freighters added per year for the next twenty years. The 5% future growth rate is close to the predicted growth of global trade on an annual basis over the next twenty years, while the 3% rate is consistent with the rate of annual growth experienced by the air freight industry since 2000. In an extreme case where there was no growth in air cargo demand over the next 20 year there would still be a need for about 60 freighters per year to offset freighters that would be retired from the existing fleet. Carriers have been quick to park their freighters during the recession, with tales circulating of brand news 747-8Fs being sent to the desert. All cargo carriers, which have remain nameless, have been in suffering particular but there is a slow and steady willingness for airlines to be willing to consider future operations for freighters. Lufhtansa is a eager to promote its new 777 freighters, due for the delivery later this year, Kenya Airways has just taken its first 737-300 conversion and Qantas is pushing ahead plans to upgrade its freighter fleet. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern and Chinese carriers ae keeping the Airbus and Boeing order book ticking along until global demand picks up again.(mar/various source)